Trump Pulls Ahead in Key Battleground States: NYT-Sienna Poll

Former President Donald Trump has gained an edge over Kamala Harris in three swing states, according to recent polling, in what serves as a stark warning for the vice president’s campaign.
According to the latest New York Times-Siena College poll of likely voters, conducted between September 17 and 21, Trump is leading the vice president in the sunbelt states of Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.
In Georgia, a state which Trump lost to Joe Biden in 2020 by just under 12,000 votes, the former president is edging his counterpart by 49 percent to 45 percent.
The last Georgia poll, conducted between August 9 and 14, showed the pair tied at 47 percent each.
In Arizona, meanwhile, Harris is trailing Trump 45 percent to 50, flipped from August, when 49 percent opted for Harris over Trump (45).
North Carolina, which Trump held in 2020, has similarly swung to a slight Trump lead, with the former president gaining three points to lead Harris 49 to 47.
However, as NYT highlights, the poll took place before news broke over Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson’s pornography forums scandal, which caused concern among Republicans over the potential impact on Trump’s efforts in the state.
Among independents in the three states, 43 percent said they leaned toward the Republican ticket, compared to 38 percent Democrat and 18 percent undecided or refusing to answer.
In-keeping with national surveys, likely voters selected the economy as the most important issue deciding their vote (26 percent), with immigration and abortion tied for second at 16 percent.
Regardless of their voting intentions, 55 percent of those polled said that Trump would handle the economy better than Harris, who won the confidence of only 42 percent on this issue.
The former president holds a similar lead when it comes to immigration – 54 percent to 43 – but falls behind Harris on the abortion question, with only 41 percent trusting Trump compared to 53 percent for the vice president.
When asked about the impact of Donald Trump’s policies, 45 percent of the sunbelt likely electorate said that people like them had been “helped” by the former president, compared to 34 percent believing they had been hurt by the former president.
This marks a significant lead over Harris, whose policies only 37 percent of respondents said would help people like them, with 42 percent claiming that they would be hurt if the vice president were elected.
In what appears to be an ominous sign for the incumbent Harris, the polls found that voters were worried about candidates’ proficiency when it came to the key issues, but the future of the country as a whole.
Taken together, only 27 percent of those polled in these three states said that the U.S. was “on the right track,” with 63 percent believing that the country is “headed in the wrong direction.”
Some 44 percent said that the problems in the U.S. are so dire “that America is in danger of failing.”
While Harris is leading Trump nationally, 48.4 percent to 45.5 according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest estimate, together these three states are worth 43 electoral college votes, and could prove critical in determining the outcome of the November vote.
However, only 66 percent said that they were “almost certain” to vote in this year’s election, with roughly 5 percent still undecided when faced with the choice of the two candidates, meaning there is still plenty to compete for in the sunbelt.
Predictions may also be skewed by the demographic changes that have occurred in the region since 2020.
According to Pat McCrory, “tens of thousands” of voters have migrated to North Carolina from urban areas in states such as New York and California to escape the worst effects of the Covid pandemic.
Speaking to CNN on Monday morning, McCrory, who formerly served as governor for North Carolina, said that this phenomenon of “transplant Covid votes” was likely impacting the the voting demographics of other swing states, and that the resulting electorate shift could result in a surprising result come November.
“I think the unknown is: What type of voter moved during covid to these Sunbelt States, and how will they vote?” McCrory said.
Update 09/23/24 08:03 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional content.
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